<h1 style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px 0px 11px; border-bottom-width: 4px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(209, 209, 209); "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">克魯曼：中國模式麻煩大了！</span></font></h1>

克魯曼：中國模式麻煩大了！

gvm.com.tw

作者克魯曼（Paul Krugman）是美國經濟學家、紐約時報專欄作家、普林斯頓大學經濟學教授、新凱恩斯主義經濟學派代表、2008年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主。

中國遇到了大麻煩！從中國的整個商業營運方式，和推動中國經濟30年來迅速發展的經濟體制，都已經達到了極限。中國模式即將碰壁，而且是像長城這麼厚的牆壁。

中國有大量的「剩餘勞動力」，也就是沒有能夠充分就業的農村勞動力，他們只能為整體經濟做出微不足道的貢獻。然而這種模式發展幾十年下來，現在遇到了「劉易斯轉折點」（Lewis Point），也就是說，中國農村的剩餘勞動力正在出現短缺。

這原來是一件好事！表示工資上漲，一般的中國人終於開始和既得利益階層分享國家經濟成長的成果，這也表示，中國經濟面臨「再平衡」（rebalancing）的需求。但中國只是不斷推遲進行必要的改革，轉而通過促使貨幣貶值，提供大量的低利貸款來提振經濟發展。

中國模式麻煩大了！當中國正在經歷「劉易斯轉折點」之際，西方經濟體正在經歷「明斯基時刻」（Minsky Moment，資產價值崩潰時刻），也就是放債過多的私人借貸機構，全都想要在同一個時間點把貸款追回來，這類型為將導致經濟整體衰退。在這個時候中國的麻煩，是其他國家最不想看到的。

這還挺矛盾的，前幾天我們還在害怕中國，現在卻替他們擔心起來，雖然我們自己的情況，也沒有好到哪裡去。（朱乙真）

（新聞來源：紐約時報）

<p nodeindex="72" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><p nodeindex="72" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><b><u>The smartphone boom has been a boon for a pioneer in semiconductors.</u></b></span></font></p><p nodeindex="73" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">WHEN he founded Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in 1987, Morris Chang recalls, "Nobody thought we were going anywhere." Back then the rule was that semiconductor companies both designed and made chips. TSMC was the first pure "foundry", making chips for designers with no factories, or "fabs", of their own. The doubts of others suited TSMC nicely. Mr Chang, at 82 still chairman and in his second stint as chief executive, says that meant it suffered no competition in its first eight years.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="74" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">These days the idea is more popular. Last year foundries made about half of all logic chips (the ones that carry out computations, as opposed to memory chips, a more commoditised market). United Microelectronics Corporation, a slightly older Taiwanese company, turned itself into a pure-play foundry in 1995. GlobalFoundries, with factories in America, Germany and Singapore, was set up in 2009.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="75" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Yet the pioneer still dominates. This year, predicts Samuel Wang of Gartner, a research firm, TSMC's revenues will exceed those of all other foundries combined. He reckons it has 90% of the world market for advanced 28-nanometre chips, which are essential to smartphones and tablets. TSMC's sales in the second quarter, reported on July 18th, were NT$156 billion ($5.2 billion), 21% more than a year before. Its net income rose by 24%, to NT$52 billion. That said, growth should slow in the second half of the year, Mr Chang told analysts, because smartphone-makers have been building up their inventories of chips ahead of new-product launches and because sales of PCs and some smartphones have been weaker than expected. Sales could even shrink in the fourth quarter.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="76" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">TSMC has thrived on a mixture of serendipity and anticipation. "The market moved in the direction in which we were heading," says Mr Chang. The boom in mobile computing has meant a bonanza for several long-standing customers, which range from Qualcomm, an American firm that dominates the market for smartphones' application processors, to MediaTek, a Taiwanese neighbour that has burst onto the scene more recently. Sales to Chinese designers such as Allwinner, Rockchip and Spreadtrum, whose chips power inexpensive Android tablets and phones, have doubled in the past year; these all license low-energy chip technology from ARM, a British firm that has been a partner of TSMC's since 2004.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="77" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">The "grand alliance" of TSMC and the chip designers, as Mr Chang has called it, has done far better from the shift to mobile devices than Intel, the world's biggest chipmaker. Intel both designs and makes chips (in industry argot, it is an integrated device manufacturer, or IDM). Its processor chips are the brains of most personal computers, but demand for these has been falling. Although Intel's newest processors are much less thirsty and the firm is determined to break into the mobile market, it has so far struggled. Its second-quarter revenues fell by 5% and its net income by 29%.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="78" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">A combination of fabless designers and a pure foundry works well, Mr Chang explains, because the designers "don't have to worry about the capital-intensive part of the business any more": the foundry provides the scale. At the same time, fabless companies, of which he reckons there are about 50 with annual revenues of at least $100m, compete with one another and with IDMs. "This diverse group has in total produced more innovation than any single IDM…Just look at the mobile products," he says.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="79" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">The battle lines between the alliance and its rivals continue to shift. Intel has entered the foundry business—and recently snaffled a contract with Altera, an American designer that has been a customer of TSMC's for 20 years. "I really regret that very much," Mr Chang says. "I had an investigation into why that happened."</span></font></p><p nodeindex="80" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">On another front, TSMC is fighting Samsung. The South Korean company makes processors not only for itself but also for Apple, even though the two are deadly rivals in smartphones and tablets. In addition it is the world's biggest maker of memory chips. Recently the Wall Street Journal reported that TSMC, after years of effort, had won a contract to make chips for iPhones and iPads—a victory that will have stung Samsung. (The Taiwanese company has not commented.) Mr Chang says that he takes neither Intel nor Samsung lightly, but insists: "We have one big advantage: we are a pure foundry. We do not compete with our customers." No matter how hard Intel and Samsung try, he says, they will not enjoy the same trust.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="81" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">The big question hanging over TSMC is whether it can find a worthy successor to its octogenarian boss. It has had one false start already: he stood down as chief executive in 2005, but took the helm again in 2009. No handover is planned yet, but last year three men were appointed "co-chief operating officers". Probably at least two of these, or maybe all three, will end up as joint chief executives. A ménage à trois could prove farcical. But perhaps TSMC's board thinks its founder is too good an act for one man to follow.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="82" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013</span></font></p></p><p nodeindex="73" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">WHEN he founded Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in 1987, Morris Chang recalls, "Nobody thought we were going anywhere." Back then the rule was that semiconductor companies both designed and made chips. TSMC was the first pure "foundry", making chips for designers with no factories, or "fabs", of their own. The doubts of others suited TSMC nicely. Mr Chang, at 82 still chairman and in his second stint as chief executive, says that meant it suffered no competition in its first eight years.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="74" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">These days the idea is more popular. Last year foundries made about half of all logic chips (the ones that carry out computations, as opposed to memory chips, a more commoditised market). United Microelectronics Corporation, a slightly older Taiwanese company, turned itself into a pure-play foundry in 1995. GlobalFoundries, with factories in America, Germany and Singapore, was set up in 2009.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="75" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Yet the pioneer still dominates. This year, predicts Samuel Wang of Gartner, a research firm, TSMC's revenues will exceed those of all other foundries combined. He reckons it has 90% of the world market for advanced 28-nanometre chips, which are essential to smartphones and tablets. TSMC's sales in the second quarter, reported on July 18th, were NT$156 billion ($5.2 billion), 21% more than a year before. Its net income rose by 24%, to NT$52 billion. That said, growth should slow in the second half of the year, Mr Chang told analysts, because smartphone-makers have been building up their inventories of chips ahead of new-product launches and because sales of PCs and some smartphones have been weaker than expected. Sales could even shrink in the fourth quarter.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="76" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">TSMC has thrived on a mixture of serendipity and anticipation. "The market moved in the direction in which we were heading," says Mr Chang. The boom in mobile computing has meant a bonanza for several long-standing customers, which range from Qualcomm, an American firm that dominates the market for smartphones' application processors, to MediaTek, a Taiwanese neighbour that has burst onto the scene more recently. Sales to Chinese designers such as Allwinner, Rockchip and Spreadtrum, whose chips power inexpensive Android tablets and phones, have doubled in the past year; these all license low-energy chip technology from ARM, a British firm that has been a partner of TSMC's since 2004.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="77" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">The "grand alliance" of TSMC and the chip designers, as Mr Chang has called it, has done far better from the shift to mobile devices than Intel, the world's biggest chipmaker. Intel both designs and makes chips (in industry argot, it is an integrated device manufacturer, or IDM). Its processor chips are the brains of most personal computers, but demand for these has been falling. Although Intel's newest processors are much less thirsty and the firm is determined to break into the mobile market, it has so far struggled. Its second-quarter revenues fell by 5% and its net income by 29%.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="78" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">A combination of fabless designers and a pure foundry works well, Mr Chang explains, because the designers "don't have to worry about the capital-intensive part of the business any more": the foundry provides the scale. At the same time, fabless companies, of which he reckons there are about 50 with annual revenues of at least $100m, compete with one another and with IDMs. "This diverse group has in total produced more innovation than any single IDM…Just look at the mobile products," he says.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="79" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">The battle lines between the alliance and its rivals continue to shift. Intel has entered the foundry business—and recently snaffled a contract with Altera, an American designer that has been a customer of TSMC's for 20 years. "I really regret that very much," Mr Chang says. "I had an investigation into why that happened."</span></font></p><p nodeindex="80" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">On another front, TSMC is fighting Samsung. The South Korean company makes processors not only for itself but also for Apple, even though the two are deadly rivals in smartphones and tablets. In addition it is the world's biggest maker of memory chips. Recently the Wall Street Journal reported that TSMC, after years of effort, had won a contract to make chips for iPhones and iPads—a victory that will have stung Samsung. (The Taiwanese company has not commented.) Mr Chang says that he takes neither Intel nor Samsung lightly, but insists: "We have one big advantage: we are a pure foundry. We do not compete with our customers." No matter how hard Intel and Samsung try, he says, they will not enjoy the same trust.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="81" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">The big question hanging over TSMC is whether it can find a worthy successor to its octogenarian boss. It has had one false start already: he stood down as chief executive in 2005, but took the helm again in 2009. No handover is planned yet, but last year three men were appointed "co-chief operating officers". Probably at least two of these, or maybe all three, will end up as joint chief executives. A ménage à trois could prove farcical. But perhaps TSMC's board thinks its founder is too good an act for one man to follow.</span></font></p><p nodeindex="82" style="text-align: -webkit-auto; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px; "><font face="Times" size="3"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013</span></font></p>