I am a statistician by training, so for my TED talk I did a tongue-in-cheek data analysis of about 600 other TED talks. I found that the most loved talks typically evoke emotion—for example, through using words like “happiness,” “the brain,” and “coffee.” So you might want to try talking about “how drinking coffee spreads happiness in the brain.” Also, don’t talk about oxygen, aircraft, or computers—statistically, technical terms are associated with less popular talks. These also cite the New York Times much more than the best-rated ones. The more successful speakers tend to use fewer slides and more props. About half of the most popular TED talks don’t even use slides at all. And for some reason, talks that people rank as “fascinating” employ a lot of purple, and ones that are “ingenious” emphasize the color green. It is statistically significant, but I haven’t found anyone who can explain that to me.
The maximum time you are given for a TED talk is 18 minutes. This really forces the speakers to make just one point, and get to it immediately. You don’t have any time for diversions. When you prepare your talk, there are always certain phrases or slides that you think are incredible. Then you start showing them to other people, and they tell you different. You have to be really brutal about cutting them out. For my TED talk, there was tons of stuff I had to throw out. It was the right thing to do, but I’m still sad for some of that material.
At your typical conference, people there are basically forced to endure the talks—it’s happening at you. Looking at the TED speakers, many of them talk about very serious or fascinating topics, yet they don’t flaunt their ego. At TED, it’s more about contributing to the conference.
Wernicke, a consultant at Oliver Wyman, created the website TEDPad.
If you go on the TED website, you can currently find there over a full week of TEDTalk videos, over 1.3 million words of transcripts and millions of user ratings. And that's a huge amount of data. And it got me wondering: If you took all this data and put it through statistical analysis, could you reverse engineer a TEDTalk? Could you create the ultimate TEDTalk? (Laughter) (Applause) And also, could you create the worst possible TEDTalk that they would still let you get away with?
To find this out, I looked at three things: I looked at the topic that you should choose, I looked at how you should deliver it and the visuals onstage. Now, with the topic: There's a whole range of topics you can choose, but you should choose wisely, because your topic strongly correlates with how users will react to your talk. Now, to make this more concrete, let's look at the list of top 10 words that statistically stick out in the most favorite TEDTalks and in the least favorite TEDTalks. So if you came here to talk about how French coffee will spread happiness in our brains, that's a go. (Laughter) (Applause) Whereas, if you wanted to talk about your project involving oxygen, girls, aircraft -- actually, I would like to hear that talk, (Laughter) but statistics say it's not so good. Oh, well. If you generalize this, the most favorite TEDTalks are those that feature topics we can connect with, both easily and deeply, such as happiness, our own body, food, emotions. And the more technical topics, such as architecture, materials and, strangely enough, men, those are not good topics to talk about.
How should you deliver your talk? TED is famous for keeping a very sharp eye on the clock, so they're going to hate me for revealing this, because, actually, you should talk as long as they will let you. (Laughter) Because the most favorite TEDTalks are, on average, over 50 percent longer than the least favorite ones. And this holds true for all ranking lists on TED.com except if you want to have a talk that's beautiful, inspiring or funny. Then, you should be brief. (Laughter) But other than that, talk until they drag you off the stage.
(Laughter)
Now, while ... (Applause) While you're pushing the clock, there's a few rules to obey. I found these rules out by comparing the statistics of four-word phrases that appear more often in the most favorite TEDTalks as opposed to the least favorite TEDTalks. I'll give you three examples. First of all, I must, as a speaker, provide a service to the audience and talk about what I will give you, instead of saying what I can't have. Secondly, it's imperative that you do not cite The New York Times. (Laughter) And finally, it's okay for the speaker -- that's the good news -- to fake intellectual capacity. If I don't understand something, I can just say, "etc., etc." You'll all stay with me. It's perfectly fine. (Applause)
Now, let's go to the visuals. The most obvious visual thing on stage is the speaker. And analysis shows if you want to be among the most favorite TED speakers, you should let your hair grow a little bit longer than average, make sure you wear your glasses and be slightly more dressed-up than the average TED speaker. Slides are okay, though you might consider going for props. And now the most important thing, that is the mood onstage. Color plays a very important role. Color closely correlates with the ratings that talks get on the website. (Applause) For example, fascinating talks contain a statistically high amount of exactly this blue color, (Laughter) much more than the average TEDTalk. Ingenious TEDTalks, much more this green color, etc., et. (Laughter) (Applause) Now, personally, I think I'm not the first one who has done this analysis, but I'll leave this to your good judgment.
So, now it's time to put it all together and design the ultimate TEDTalk. Now, since this is TEDActive, and I learned from my analysis that I should actually give you something, I will not impose the ultimate or worst TEDTalk on you, but rather give you a tool to create your own. And I call this tool the TEDPad. (Laughter) And the TEDPad is a matrix of 100 specifically selected, highly curated sentences that you can easily piece together to get your own TEDTalk. You only have to make one decision, and that is: Are you going to use the white version for very good TEDTalks, about creativity, human genius? Or are you going to go with a black version, which will allow you to create really bad TEDTalks, mostly about blogs, politics and stuff? So, download it and have fun with it.
Now I hope you enjoy the session. I hope you enjoy designing your own ultimate and worst possible TEDTalks. And I hope some of you will be inspired for next year to create this, which I really want to see.
Thank you very much.
(Applause) Thanks.
若你上 TED 的網站， 你會看到 超過一整星期的 TEDTalk 影片， 超過13億字 的字幕。 還有百萬以上的使用者評比， 資料量很龐大。 所以我在想， 如果你把這些資料 進行統計分析， 你可不可能反向製作出一個 TEDTalk？ 還是你可以創造出 一個「最棒的」TEDTalk？ （掌聲） 還是說，你可以製作出 一個最爛的 TEDTalk， 而且還可以全身而退？
為了找到解答，我選擇三個層面來分析。 我先看該選什麼當做演說的標題， 再來看看在台上該怎麼表達， 以及該使用什麼視覺輔助。 先來說標題，你可以選的標題範圍很廣， 但你應該謹慎地選擇， 因為你所選定的標題， 將會嚴重影響聽眾對你演說的反應。 為了讓你更明白一點， 讓我們先來看看篩選出來的前十名最佳字句， 這是統計分析的結果， 是分別從聽眾最喜愛的 TEDTalk， 和聽眾最不喜愛的 TEDTalk 中所篩選出來的。 所以，如果你到這兒來， 發表一個主題是「法國咖啡如何 在我們的大腦裡傳播快樂」的演說， 那就對了！ （掌聲） 但是，如果你的主題 是敘述你所從事的專案計畫， 內容與氧氣、女孩、飛機等字眼有關， 我個人其實還滿想聽這種演說的， 但統計數據卻告訴我們這不夠吸引人。 嗯, 好。 如果我們廣泛地推論， 最受歡迎的 TEDTalk 所談論的主題， 是聽眾容易與之產生共鳴的， 既簡單而又深入， 像是快樂、我們的身體、 食物和情緒等。 而比較技術性的主題， 像是建築、材料、還有 – 這非常的奇怪 – 男人， 這些就不是那麼受歡迎的主題。
該怎麼進行演說呢？ TED 最負盛名的是 對演說者時間的嚴格掌控， 所以他們會很討厭我告訴你們這一點， 因為根據統計， 你應該在他們允取你的時間範圍內，說得愈長愈好， 因為最受歡迎的 TEDTalk， 平均比最不受歡迎的演說， 時間長上一半。 這是 TED.com 的排行榜告訴我們的事實， 除非你的演說是 優美的、具啟發性的或是有趣的， 那麼，你應該簡潔些。不然的話， 你應該一直說到他們要把你拖下台為止。
（笑聲）
嗯，好.. （掌聲） 在你爭取更多演說時間的同時，還有幾項規則要遵守。 我會發現這些規則， 是因為我統計了演說中所出現的辭句， 看看哪些在最受歡迎的 TEDTalk 中較常出現， 哪些又在最不受歡迎的 TEDTalk 中出現。 我會舉三個例子說明。 首先，身為一個演說者， 我必須提供我所知道的資訊給聽眾， 而不是告訴聽眾我不知道什麼。 第二，要記住 不要引用紐約時報的報導。 （笑聲） 最後，我要告訴你們一個好消息， 要學會不懂裝懂。 如果不瞭解某件事，就用「諸如此類...」來矇混過去。 你們都知道我在說什麼吧! 這樣很好啊！ （掌聲）
現在我們來談談視覺輔助。 在講台上最醒目的視覺標的應該就是演說者了。 統計分析顯示，若你想成為 最受歡迎的 TED 演說者， 你應該把頭髮留得比一般人長一點， 記得戴上眼鏡，然後穿得比一般 TED 演說者 再正式一點， 投影片可以用，但如果能有道具輔助會更好。 然而，最重要的事是 講台上的氣氛。 色彩佔有很重要的地位， 你選用的色彩會決定 你在網路上的評價 （掌聲） 舉例來說，被評價為「引人入勝」的 TEDTalk 都大量使用 這種藍色， 使用頻率比一般的 TEDTalk 高得多。 被評價為「機智」的演說多是這種綠色， 諸如此類... （掌聲） 我個人覺得， 我應該不是第一個做這種分析的人， 但這留給你們 自己判斷吧！
現在該是我們把所有東西拼湊在一起 製作出最棒的 TEDTalk 的時候了。 由於這是 TEDActive， 從我研究的統計資料裡， 我知道我該給你們一些實際的東西， 我不會強迫你們做出最棒的 或是最爛的 TEDTalk， 但我會給你們一套工具讓你們製作出自己的演說。 我把這個工具命名為 TED Pad。 （笑聲） TED Pad 內含有 100 組精選語句， 你可以善加組合， 製作出你自己的 TEDTalk。 你所要做的決定只有一個， 那就是：你是要使用白色的版本 來製作出優質的 TEDTalk， 內容關於創造力、人類的才華？ 還是你想要選用黑色的版本？ 那讓你可以製作出超爛的 TEDTalk， 內容大部分涵蓋部落格 還有政治這些玩意兒。 現在就下載，好好玩一玩吧！
希望你們喜歡我的演說。 也希望你們喜歡自己製作出來的 最棒及最爛的 TEDTalk。 也希望你們之中有人會受到啟發， 明年可以站在台上，我真的很期待你們的演說。
謝謝你們。
（掌聲）
Friday, January 06, 2012
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